Paris Soir - OPEC+ meets as oil output hike looms

The 22-nation group began a series of cuts in 2022 to prop up crude prices, but Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other members surprised markets recently by sharply raising output for May and June.

The move has put pressure on prices, which have also fallen as investors worry that US President Donald Trump's tariff onslaught will cause an economic slump and weigh on demand.

Analysts say the hikes have likely been aimed at punishing OPEC members that have failed to meet their quotas, but it also follows pressure from Trump to lower prices.

OPEC+ ministers in their online meeting Wednesday reaffirmed the alliance's collective policy, according to a joint statement.

But a decision to accelerate output hikes in July is expected to be made by its leading members -- known as the "V8" or "voluntary eight" -- at a meeting on Saturday.

Such a decision, however, is not expected to have a major effect on oil prices, which have hovered around a relatively low $60-$65 per barrel.

"This potential hike seems largely priced in already (by the markets)," said Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB research group.

"We expect market reactions to remain relatively muted," Hvalbye said.

At a meeting in December, OPEC+ decided to wait until late 2026 to reverse collective cuts of some two million barrels per day (bpd), as well as additional cuts by some member countries of 1.65 million bpd.

But the V8 separately decided to reopen the valves this year, reducing further cuts they made and raising output from April by 137,000 bpd and at an accelerated pace by 411,000 bpd in May and June.

"There are rumours that the group will move ahead with another triple hike (another 411,000 barrels) in July" at its meeting on Saturday, said analysts at Norwegian financial services group DNB.

Analysts see several possible motivations for the production hikes.

The move is seen as Saudi Arabia and others penalising members for not keeping to their quotas under the cuts first agreed in 2022.

Kazakhstan, which is seen as one of the main laggards, "continues to produce roughly 350,000 barrels above its quota," said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, an analyst at Global Risk Management.

Analysts also note that the production increases came after Trump called on OPEC to slash prices -- meaning to increase output -- in order to contain US inflation.

A third reason could be an attempt by Saudi Arabia to drive prices down to add pressure on the US shale business and increase its market share.

The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting is set for 30 November 2025.

D.Petit--PS