Paris Soir - In Finnish border town, worry mounts over Russian military build-up

Finland, which dropped decades of military non-alignment to join NATO in 2023, shares a 1,340-kilometre (830-mile) border with Russia.

Recent satellite images obtained by media outlets including the New York Times, Finnish public broadcaster Yle and Swedish broadcaster SVT have revealed an expansion of Russian military infrastructure in various locations near the Finnish border.

Speculation is rife that Russia could be preparing for future military action against Finland once its war in Ukraine is over.

Moscow has repeatedly warned Finland of repercussions since it joined NATO after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

"We have now noticed some new organisational changes, such as new divisions which are beginning to appear near Finland's borders," military expert Emil Kastehelmi, of Finland-based Black Bird Group which analyses Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Russian forces near NATO's eastern border, told AFP.

"Russia continues to build, prepare and train in the vicinity of Finland's and NATO's eastern border," he said.

Kastehelmi said the Russian activity was a reaction to Finland's NATO accession, as well as an attempt to step up recruitment of soldiers and a result of the re-establishment of the Leningrad Military District near the border last year.

In May, the Finnish Defence Forces told AFP that "Russia is building more infrastructure to be able to bring in more troops after the war (in Ukraine) is over".

Finnish Defence Minister Antti Hakkanen told AFP that Helsinki was "closely monitoring and assessing Russia's activities and intentions" together with its allies.

- Preparing for different scenarios -

In the small border town of Kuhmo, around 600 kilometres north of Helsinki, 49-year-old Samuli Pulkkinen was selling seasonal berries and vegetables outside a grocery store.

He said locals were increasingly worried about another war with Russia -- the last one, in 1939-1940, saw Finland cede 11 percent of its territory.

"After a long period of peace, everyone is of course now talking about war and the threat of war," Pulkkinen told AFP.

"It's really sad that it's as if this time of peace is already over, that there is a constant threat that something bad will happen or will happen in the next few years."

"I myself think it's very likely," he added ominously.

Kuhmo, with a population of less than 10,000, is located some 60 kilometres from the closed Vartius border crossing.

The proximity to Russia has always influenced Finland's eastern border regions.

Many locals have family on both sides of the border, and tourism and cross-border trade were important sources of income before 2022.

"I'm not worrying too much, because living with fear is challenging in one's daily life," said a 67-year-old man who asked to remain anonymous.

"But thinking about the future generations, children and grandchildren, I worry about their future."

- Closed border -

Finland is building a 200-kilometre border fence aimed at preventing Russia from "instrumentalising migrants" across its border to destabilise Finland.

The Nordic country shut its border with Russia in December 2023 until further notice, after the arrival of around 1,000 migrants without visas. Helsinki said the surge was orchestrated by Russia -- a claim Moscow denied.

Tomi Tirkkonen, deputy commander of the Kainuu border guard district which includes Kuhmo, said the border guard was monitoring activity along the eastern border on a daily basis, and was "very well updated about the situation on the Russian side."

"There is no reason to be scared, the situation is completely under the control of the Finnish border guard," he told AFP during a visit to the Vartius border crossing, located amidst lush forest.

"We are prepared for the many different kinds of scenarios," Tirkkonen said, unable to divulge "operational and classified" details.

Finland has beefed up its military investments and preparedness since joining NATO, and has urged citizens to increase their civil preparedness.

- 'No immediate threat' -

The Nordic country backs NATO's five percent spending target and has launched a reform of its defence forces to tackle the security threat.

Pirjo Rasinkangas, who was visiting relatives in Kuhmo, said she supported Finland's decision to shut the border and build the border fence, saying it gave her a "sense of safety".

"I am still trying to be a bit positive and think that it won't get worse at least," she said.

"Of course we discuss what comes next with my family. Because it feels like there are such bleak prospects cropping up all the time," the 54-year-old added.

Analyst Kastehelmi said the increased Russian military activity posed no immediate threat to Finland's security nor indicated Russia was preparing a military attack.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb assured in a CNN interview in May that Russia's military bases along the border were nothing new and "there is a normal build-up" of troops there.

"The most important question is what happens when the war in Ukraine ends," Kastehelmi said.

"It (would be) a very worrying sign if, for example, Russia doesn't discharge or demobilise soldiers after the active military operations in Ukraine end."

T.Girard--PS